US and India comparisons

US - World's earliest democracy. India - World's biggest democracy.
US - there is a housing reform bill. India - there is a banking/insurance reform bill
US - tax rebate package - to boost economy........ India - farmers relief
US - elections. India - elections
US - Fed not raising rates as expected........ India - RBI raising rates, but slower than expected / inflation rise.
US - real int rates -ve ... India - real int rates -ve
US - markets still not recuperating much... India - market is 20% up from the recent lows

Vote of Confidence and Market?

I continue to be bearish and am very suspicious of the current upmove - triggered by global rally, oil fall, expectations of UPA winning vote of confidence.
Long Term: bearish: will change only if nifty can go above 5200 or when it forms a longer consolidation base. Or when New High vs New low ratio changes to +ve.
Intermediate Term: bearish: can change if nifty goes above 4360-4400. This acted as temporary support before markets fell 10-15% (and some stocks, as much as 30-40%). This should act as a resistance zone and as a good SL. So far, market has not even attempted to go close to this number. It recently made a top @4180-4220. So, that will also act as a resistance zone and it will be difficult to break above it.
Short Term: bullish. Short term the market has already bounced up 300-400 nifty points and it still appears to be bullish due to oil cooling off and govt. probability of winning vote of confidence without the LEFT. However, oil cool off - whether it is only short term is a question and $130/bbl is not really low. Also elections in 4 months or 8 months should nt matter much. Infact, I think earlier elections are better for the markets - as there will be a clear direction sooner in that case. So, i think govt winning VOC may be bad for the market - but I am an amateur in this area.

Stocks showing great strength: SBI, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI (I am shorting these with the view that they will fall much more as the underlying fundamentals have not improved any bit and the deterioration is yet to even stabilize)
Stocks showing weakness: ALL stocks in all sectors, including the erstwhile leading sectors IT, Metals.

Targets:
Nifty futures: 2500 or lower - long term
Nifty futures: 3500 intermediate term (+/-50)
Nifty futures: 4200 immediate short term (+/- 20) and max seems to be upto 4400 (+/-50).

I am still 80% cash: 20% equity.
All my equity holdings have now been hedged - since I am new, my hedging may not be so good. But I am learning this.