HVOS Shikshan and Rahat Sangh Election Chaos

To Halari Visa Oswal Samaj Election Organizing committee,

At the start I completely accept that organizing such a large scale event must have taken a lot of precious hours of a lot of important people, I appreciate all the hard work done in it.

It has nonetheless left a very sour taste in my mouth. So much so - that I have discussed and argued a lot yesterday with a lot of elected representatives and voters and am surprised with my findings and observations.

-> Why were there no "English" names in forms?

-> There were no instructions on how to vote. Why this is a problem will be clear in following points.

-> What was Age-education-profession of candidates? How do i make a decision on whom to vote for? Most females and younger generation folks dont know 264 people just by their name / town. More information (at the least Age-education-profession) should have been there in the ballot, online and elsewhere (including advertising pamphlets).

-> On the ballots, nowhere is it mentioned to limit votes till 130. I have put 132 (50% of 264 names on the ballot). I have been told my vote will be invalid. I have done Postgraduation and given many professional exams. I am not alone - there are 10s or 100s of such educated people (grads, postgrads) whose votes will be considered invalid in an election for education institution. Shocking!!!!!!!
Why will my vote be invalid? There should have been clear instruction on the ballot. And in english too.
If my (and many such) vote doesnt get counted, i want a written statement to that effect explaining the reason(s).

-> Nowhere was it written on how to vote. Meaning a tickmark or cross sign or YES / NO or Y / N or what sign. No votes should be disqualified because of such a reason.

-> I have been told by many folks that we cant allow such votes now because of constitution --- If this is a reply, please call me and I will explain why that is grossly unfair. Constitution is for the benefit of people. Does it mention in the constitution that in advertisements, we will talk of 130 people in 2 parties, totalling 260. but when you goto vote, you will see 264 names? Where was it written on ballot that one has to vote for 130 and not 132 or 100 or 200 people? Or bcos of tick vs cross.
Will a decision to invalidate votes stand in the court of law? Since there was no written info on ballot, I would think not.

-> How were the nominees chosen? When was this process done? We were not aware of it. Please spread this information as well for future elections.

-> It was very very clear during advertisements and when entering the samaj wadi that there are two groups. After the vote, i was told that is not the case. Grouping is only unofficial? If so, why were they spreading pamphlets and shouting to vote for one - within wadi premises?? Nowhere was it mentioned that I could vote for any of the 264 people irrespective of the group.
Which is why you will find most people have voted for Group A or Group B ---- if groups were unofficial, this is highly immoral by the groups and the samaj to make voters believe that there are groups and we should vote for the groups.

Sumeet Mohan Savla
Borivali - East, Mumbai

Gold - parabolic move in rupees?

I am still a novice investor (novice since my experience i.e. # of years in this field is < 3, but not due to my knowledge) and so please take everything I say with a pinch of salt.

Today, I got this email - which talked of Gold vs. silver and concluded that over the past months / years, gold has been a better investment / hedge and it concluded that gold would continue to do so.

I have no opinion about the debate between gold and silver.

(As a disclosure, I own lots of physical gold and some silver - mostly as part of family jewelery and little as investment. I am short some gold at the commodities exchange)

Please see the chart below:



I looked at this chart and I observed that this gold move is quite a parabolic move over 30 years.
Since I am a novice, I will highly appreciate readers' views on this.

About sentiment: in India, Gold has always been perceived as something of very high value. Something that is never sold - except in case of dire circumstances (like bankruptcies or last resort of financing).
As evident from the chart, throughout my generation (and before), gold's price in Indian rupees has always gone up in the long run. So, this has led to the belief that gold always goes up and never down. Also, when gold reached 15k-16k Rs. , I met a lot of gold bears ---- many of them sold out half or all of their family gold as well! But, i see noone nowadays who is doing that. Will keep hunting more for this. My jeweler kept calling me to sell gold at 18k Rs. But, now, at 19k, he doesnt!

Do note that after 1980 peak of gold in USD, gold price did fall a lot and took 25+ years to reach the same value. (ignoring inflation).

I am not so smart to predict such a long-term move for gold in INR.
But, I think even if this is not the peak for gold in INR, we are certainly closer to it than most people think. This could mean two things:
1) Price of gold actually peaks out in USD - My expectation is gold might have peaked for few weeks / months in USD; but may eventually go higher in USD.
2) INR appreciates big time and as a result, gold price in INR doesnt rise much from here or infact falls. I think this is a very very strong possibility considering that India is one of the few truly safe havens for investment money in world (sorry communists to my right (china) and sorry capitalists in US with socialist policies). 20-25% CAGR growth for so many companies (and much more than that in many instances), with 8-10% country GDP growth in a world where countries are worried about deflation / depression / double-dip recession / bla bla - is a wonderful place to invest in.
3) Both of the above.

Summary: in the long run, we are much closer the eventual gold top in INR than most people think - whether this is due to INR becoming much stronger or due to GOLD actually making a top in USD (or both), i cant say.

So, sell some gold ...

Cheers,
Sumeet Savla

PS Any help in getting me a better / bigger chart of gold in INR will be highly appreciated.

Correction over?

[Today, I am just writing my views without much data. Will improvise with data points to add to views going forward.]

Very very interesting times...
Clearly the street is divided - I think there are more bears actually.
We have had few panic like sessions (96% down A-D in stocks & up / down volumes). We have had few people recommend shorts evven after nifty fell by 500-600 points in a couple of weeks.
People (traders / analysts) are quite convinced that market will fall below 200 dma and go much below it.

So, i would say we bounce from here, and then go sideways till budget.
Post-budget, we will probably fall a little and then start a fresh uptrend from March.

The risk to this is with the huge rally in Dow today (assuming it lasts till close), we gap up tomorrow and there is a frenzy buying by retail again - saying that 'yay! we bounced from 200 dma and tok support there' and then we close lower than open tomorrow.
So, a lot depends on how bullish the sentiments turns to.
For the last 2-3 weeks, in economic times & moneycontrol, all questions asking about whether nifty will go below 4500 before budget (or similar questions) have had a 2:1 ratio in favor of downside. So, my view that we will bounce a lot.

Ofcourse, if we show a follow through day, and ideally a 2nd follow through day & strong leadership to confirm the 1st one, then the uptrend will be stronger and could lead to good upsides due to so many bears around.