short covering bounceback?

I cant see todays bounceback any other way.
The stocks that had fallen the most - banks, realties - bounced up today.
Pharma kept leading up - Ranbaxy news showed up - which is very interesting and too much for a newbie like me to fathom. I own a lot of ranbaxy.
Too many people had told me that oil has topped - i dont like that view, yeah - that means - we are definitely in a bear mkt. Retail cant get it right so much on a top. :)
It will top someday soon - maybe another $10 single day gain will kill the rally.
My PMS - ASK and Religare - relationship managers told me that we are going to go up. No ways guys! I have asked for full redemption from ASK PMS now and not just the 70% cash I had there so far.
The bounce got perfect resistance at 4530-4550 - this area was a major support area and not being able to break it tells me bad things lie ahead.
More news have followed - RBI hiked repo rate ahead of scheduled meeting. Oil is back up 5$, so much for calling it a top. US indices are down 1.5%.
All this implies gap down and horrible day ahead. Looking forward to IIP data on thursday and Inflation data on friday - if we do bounce, and if we can break 4550 - highly unlikely with a gap down, we will meet resistance at 4620 and then at 4730. HIGHLY doubt the current rally to go past it.
Downside - I expect 4200 very soon - maybe even tomorrow or friday. Sorry for being such a sadistic guy, but too many people think they are smarter than the market and can ride agianst the trend. That is risky and injurious to your financial health.
The gap down will do no good to my order of redemption in ASK PMS, but I am going to force them to sell since they expect the "growth" folio of P/E of 4 (its not 4, but thats what they told me) to go up by 60% - ridiculuous!
I was going through a lot of charts and 90% (subjective ratio) of them are in horrible shape.
Short term target: 4200.
Intermediate term target: 4000 and then 3800-3850
Long term: 3500.